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Briefly describe the current state of the Tasmanian forestry industry. Include comment on the state of the global forestry industry
Tasmanian Forestry industry
Your task for this assignment is to analyse the state of the Tasmanian forestry industry and discuss its future prospects. You will also investigate the impact of government policy on this industry.
Your assignment will be influenced by independent research which you do on the industry, together with a report provided on e–Communities and data provided in Excel spreadsheets.
There are five parts to the assignment.
Briefly describe the current state of the Tasmanian forestry industry. Include comment on the state of the global forestry industry.
Part 2 – Government Policy
Analyse the potential impact of governmental policy on the Tasmanian forestry industry. Two key policy initiatives are to be analysed: tariffs and subsidies.
Suppose the Australian government decided to introduce tariff on non-Tasmanian timber products?
i) Your task is to analyse the impact of tariffs using conventional demand and supply
diagrams. You are required to identify the impact on consumers and producers, the prices they pay and receive and the quantities they buy and sell.
ii) Using the same diagrams illustrate how the impact might vary according to different demand and supply curve characteristics
iii) Based on your analysis, outline your views on this hypothetical decision by the
Australian government to impose tariffs on non–Tasmanian timber products
Suppose the Tasmanian government decided to offer subsidies to provide assistance to the industry.
i) Analyse the impact of a proposed subsidy using conventional demand and supply diagrams. Identify the impact on consumers and on producers, the prices they pay and receive and the quantities they buy and sell
ii) Using these same diagrams, illustrate how the impact might vary according to different demand and supply curve characteristics.
iii) Based on your analysis outline your views on this hypothetical decision by the
Australian government to offer subsidies to provide assistance to the industry
Complete graphical and statistical analysis of industry data to identify trends and generate projections. The data is provided on e–communities under Learning Resources. Undertake your analysis using Excel, in accordance with the textbook and Study Guide approaches.
a) Using the data provided:
i) plot timber sales ii) plot timber prices
iii) examine each plot for possible seasonal patterns
iv) if a seasonal pattern is evident then modify the data using one of the methods presented in the textbook to adjust for those seasonal patterns
Comment on the trends identifiable in both price and sales and potential explanations for those trends
Use the analysis you have undertaken to forecast timber sales for the next quarter.
Part 4 – Structural Modeling
Complete a regression analysis of industry data to estimate a demand equation for Tasmanian timber sales. Only use the data provided on e–Communities and use Excel in your analysis, in accordance with the textbook and Study Guide approaches.
a) Estimate Demand Equation
Use the data provided to estimate a demand equation for timber sales quarterly. You may select the independent variable from the data provided that best explains the dependent variable.
Comment on the quality of your demand estimation
Use the model you have estimated to forecast timber sales for the next full year
Part 5 – Future industry prospects
Evaluate the future prospects of the Tasmanian forestry industry.
