Financial Modeling & Forecasting

Jason MacMorran www.pncpa.com

 

 

Presentation Outline

I. Introduction and Learning Objectives II. Definitions and Standards Overview III. Uses for Financial Models IV. Basics of Financial Modeling V. Basics of Financial Analysis VI. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis VII. Conclusion

 

 

Learning Objectives

Understand accounting standards related to prospective information.

Discuss uses and applications for financial models, including uses as decision making tools.

Understand basic design and creation of a financial model.

Understand uses for financial analysis and sensitivity analysis.

 

 

Definitions and Standards Overview

 

 

Definitions and Standards Overview

The words projection, forecast, pro forma, model, etc., are often used interchangeably relative to prospective information.

In an accounting context, they have different meanings.

Generally speaking, the projection, forecast, pro forma or budget will be the ‘output’, and the financial model will include the ‘inputs’ and ‘output’.

This section is not intended to be authoritative or a detailed look at standards, but a general overview of what to look for and where to find it!

 

 

Key Accounting Terms

Forecast – presents an entity’s expected financial position, results of operations, and cash flows, based on responsible party’s assumptions reflecting conditions it expects to exist and actions it expects to take.

Projection – presents an entity’s financial position, results of operations, and cash flows, based on one or more hypothetical (what ifs) assumptions provided by a responsible party.

Hypothetical Assumption – an assumption used to present a condition or course of action that is not necessarily expected to occur, but is consistent with the purpose of the projection (i.e. expansion scenario).

 

 

Key Accounting Terms

Financial Analysis – practitioner develops assumptions, analyzes results, and recommends a course of action.

Partial Presentation – a presentation of prospective financial information that excludes one or more of the items required for prospective financial statements.

Responsible Party – person or persons responsible for assumptions underlying the prospective financial statements.

 

 

Types of Presentations

Prospective Information Prospective Financial Statements

Forecast Projection

Prospective, but not Financial Statements Partial presentations Financial analyses

Not Prospective Information Pro forma, based on historical amounts Expired budgets

 

 

Uses of Prospective Information

General Use – use by persons with whom the responsible party is not directly negotiating, for example:

Offering of debt or equity securities under SEC regulations. Offering of tax-exempt bonds.

Limited Use – use only by the entity with whom the responsibly party is negotiating, for example:

Private placement. Negotiating bank financing. Merger negotiations.

Internal Use – solely for use by the responsible party.

 

 

Uses of Prospective Information

Type of Prospective Presentation

Appropriate Uses

General Use Limited Use Internal Use

Forecast Yes Yes Yes

Projection No Yes Yes

Partial Presentation No Yes Yes

Financial Analysis No Yes Yes

 

 

Types of Engagements

Third-party Use: Special disclaimer on current year budgets – practitioners may not be required to apply any procedures if they make certain disclaimers. Compilation – assembling prospective statements in conformity with presentation guidelines and issuing report. Agreed-upon procedures – varies by engagement, and can be very limited or quite extensive. Examination – evaluating assumptions and presentation of financial information and issuing report.

Internal Use: Assembly – no type of assurance, does not require report.

 

 

Independence

Independence is required in examination and agreed-upon procedures engagements, but not in compilation or internal use engagements because no assurance is expressed.

 

 

Exceptions

Litigation and valuation projects often have exceptions to procedure and presentation rules, so long as they are properly disclaimed.

 

 

Key Finance Terms

Net Present Value – present value of expected future cash flows minus initial investment.

Internal Rate of Return – discount rate at which investment has zero net present value.

 

 

Resources

Accounting AICPA Attestation Standards AICPA Guide for Prospective Financial Information AICPA Practice Aid 06-2 Preparing Financial Models PPC’s Guide to Forecasts and Projections

Finance Brealey & Myers Principles of Corporate Finance

 

 

Uses for Financial Models

 

 

Background

Financial models should tell a story. What is the business going to do? How is it going to do it? How is it reflected in the financials?

Financial models capture the future operating, investing and financing activities that determine future profitability, financial position, and risk.

Financial models should be comprehensive, internally consistent, and externally reasonable.

 

 

Background

Financial models can integrate elements of accounting, finance, economics, corporate psychology, and business philosophy.

Accounting based models – compilations for investors / creditors.

Finance / economics based models – decision making (net present value, internal rate of return, etc.).

Psychology / Philosophy – In a ‘decision making’ model, how will competitors react to your planned actions? Does the plan involve risks you know you’re unwilling to take?

 

 

Uses for Financial Models

Financing (debt or equity)

Buy vs. Lease

Valuation

Budgeting

Business Plans

Strategic Plans

Expansion

Merger / Acquisition

Lost Profits

Business Interruption

Litigation Support

Start-ups

Contraction / Closure

 

 

Financial Models in Everyday Life

A ‘financial model’ does not have to be complex!

Simple situations call for simple financial models: Buy vs. lease of vehicle Impact of change in interest rate on borrowing Payback period on an investment

Complex situations call for complex financial models: Merger and acquisition pro-forma and future cost savings Entering new markets / launching new products Litigation

 

 

Basics of Financial Modeling

 

 

Basics of Financial Modeling

Define the need

Basic organization

Sample construction

Other layout considerations

 

 

Define the Need

What is the desired goal of the financial model? Launching a new product? Integrating a potential acquisition? Refinancing debt?

Who is the expected user? Management? Investors? Bankers?

What is the expected use? Internal? External?

The above issues will govern the sophistication and reporting requirements of a financial model.

 

 

Define the Need

Presentation / engagement will depend on purpose and audience.

May require complete financial statements over a defined time period.

May require limited information over a defined time period.

May require ‘one-time’ sources and uses of funds.

 

 

Complete Financial Statements

Most difficult and time consuming to prepare, but also most instructive to user:

Balance Sheet – measures future liquidity and leverage

Income Statement – measures future operating results

Statement of Cash Flows – outlines future cash needs for growth (investment and borrowing) and returns to investors

Collectively, complete financial statements can help measure return on investment and potential risks.

 

 

Limited Information

Most common, including:

Prepare a twelve month budget

Six months of start-up expenses

Amortize a loan over five years

Do not necessarily have to be financial statements!

 

 

Sources and Uses of Funds

Where is money coming from (bank debt, equity, etc).

What is it going to be spent on (equipment, refinance, operating costs, etc).

Often seen in refinancing and bond offerings.

Contribution Cap % Sources Cash on Hand 500$ 0.6% Bank Revolver 0 0.0% Senior Bank Note 20,000 23.4% Subordinated Bank Note 5,000 5.8% Owner Contribution 10,000 11.7% New Equity 50,000 58.5% Total Sources 85,500$ 100.0%

Uses Purchase new equipment 10,000$ 11.7% Operating costs 25,000 29.2% Office manager 40,000 46.8% Refinance Existing Debt 0 0.0% Working Capital 10,000 11.7% Cash 500 0.6% Total Uses 85,500$ 100.0%

SOURCES AND USES

 

 

Time Period

Generally, time period should match the business life cycle. 5 year projection for a 20 year real estate deal may not be helpful. 20 year projection in a rapidly changing industry may not be relevant. How to handle changes in the economy?

For litigation or damage oriented models, time period should correspond to period of damage.

 

 

Basic Organization

Most financial models include the following basic elements:

Identification of the problem to be solved (buy vs. lease, expansion, new location, etc.)

Key assumptions (sales growth, margins, capital expenditures, impact of competitors, etc.)

Output / results (financial statements, net present value, go / no go decision, etc.)

 

 

Sample Construction

Problem – Client / Employer wants to expand an existing product into a new geographic market (new location).

Which question is better: Will the project be profitable? Will the project provide an adequate return on investment?

Accounting based financial statements will show profitability.

Net present value / internal rate of return analysis will show return on investment.

 

 

Sample Construction – Scope

‘Problem’ and expected use/users will define scope of financial model.

In the case of expansion / new location, the following factors should be considered:

Will be a long-term project Will likely require significant investment (equity and /or debt) Will likely require consideration of competitor reactions

Based on this ‘problem’ and expected use/users, output should be complete presentation over a long-term, with consideration of ‘return’ on the investment.

 

 

Sample Construction – Assumptions

What are key assumptions? Will vary by client and industry May be impacted by current economic environment in short-term

Critical points: Assumptions should be defined separately (i.e. a separate ‘tab’ in Excel workbook); often referred to as ‘projection drivers’ Assumptions should be reasonable and logical Assumptions should be supported by historical trends, industry trends, economic data, or other data (will discuss later)

Bad assumptions = bad decisions!

 

 

Sample Construction – Assumptions Sample Company Projection Assumptions

Growth Rates

Line Item Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Terminal

Revenues 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Salaries 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Benefits 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Supplies 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Licenses 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Utilities 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Repairs and maintenance 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Insurance 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Telephone 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Management fees 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Miscellaneous 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

Accounts Receivable

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Terminal Assumed days outstanding 70 70 70 70 70 70 Accounts receivable turnover 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21

Projected Net Sales $ 953,135 $ 1,000,792 $ 1,050,831 $ 1,103,373 $ 1,158,542 $ 1,216,469 Projected accounts receivable $ 182,793 $ 191,933 $ 201,529 $ 211,606 $ 222,186 $ 233,295

Accounts Payable

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Terminal Assumed days outstanding 14 14 14 14 14 14 Accounts payable turnover 26.07 26.07 26.07 26.07 26.07 26.07

Projected Operating Expenses, less Int & Depr $ 718,244 $ 751,156 $ 785,714 $ 822,000 $ 860,100 $ 900,105 Projected accounts payable $ 27,549 $ 28,811 $ 30,137 $ 31,529 $ 32,990 $ 34,525

 

 

Sample Construction – Income Statement

Easiest place to start: Core assumptions relate to operations (growth rates, margins, etc.) Operations not ‘dependent’ on balance sheet or cash flows

When appropriate, separate fixed and variable costs.

If model is very detailed, consider separate worksheets for departments, revenues, cost of revenues, operating expenses, etc.

Separating the model into smaller parts helps to catch errors!

 

 

Sample Construction – Income Statement

Sample Company

Projected Income Statements

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Terminal

Revenues $ 953,135 $ 1,000,792 $ 1,050,831 $ 1,103,373 $ 1,158,542 $ 1,216,469

Operating Expenses

Salaries 286,043 300,345 315,362 331,131 347,687 365,071

Benefits 42,906 45,051 47,304 49,669 52,153 54,760

Supplies 187,585 196,964 206,812 217,153 228,011 239,411

Licenses 8,000 8,400 8,820 9,261 9,724 10,210

Lease 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000

Utilities 12,000 12,600 13,230 13,892 14,586 15,315

Repairs and maintenance 59,710 62,696 65,830 69,122 72,578 76,207

Insurance 28,000 29,400 30,870 32,414 34,034 35,736

Telephone 3,000 3,150 3,308 3,473 3,647 3,829

Interest 3,375 2,758 2,113 1,440 736 –

Management fees 30,000 31,500 33,075 34,729 36,465 38,288

Miscellaneous 1,000 1,050 1,103 1,158 1,216 1,276

Depreciation 140,533 140,533 140,533 150,533 150,533 –

Total Operating Expenses 862,152 894,447 928,360 973,972 1,011,368 900,105

Operating Income 90,983 106,344 122,471 129,400 147,173 316,364

Less: Provision for Income Taxes (22,746) (26,586) (30,618) (32,350) (36,793) (79,091)

Net Income $ 68,237 $ 79,758 $ 91,853 $ 97,050 $ 110,380 $ 237,273

 

 

Sample Construction – Balance Sheet

Often more difficult to model, mostly because cash balances are ‘iterative’ (turn on Excel feature).

Working capital (receivables, inventory, payables) projected from assumptions, such as days outstanding / turnover ratios.

Capital expenditures need to support expected level of operations.

Financing (debt / equity) will depend on capital needs, working capital requirements, etc.

Retained earnings will roll from net income.

 

 

Sample Construction – Balance Sheet Sample Company Projected Balance Sheets

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Terminal

ASSETS Current Assets Cash $ 366,367 $ 564,455 $ 773,599 $ 946,853 $ 1,182,298 $ 1,409,996 Accounts receivable 182,793 191,933 201,529 211,606 222,186 233,295 Total Current Assets 549,160 756,387 975,128 1,158,459 1,404,484 1,643,292

Fixed Assets Fixed assets, at cost 748,450 748,450 748,450 798,450 798,450 798,450 Accumulated depreciation (140,533) (281,066) (421,599) (572,132) (722,665) (722,665) Total Fixed Assets, net 607,917 467,384 326,851 226,318 75,785 75,785

Total Assets 1,157,077 1,223,771 1,301,979 1,384,777 1,480,269 1,719,077

LIABILITIES & EQUITY

Liabilities Accounts payable 27,549 28,811 30,137 31,529 32,990 34,525 Notes payable 61,291 46,964 31,993 16,349 (0) (0) Total Liabilities 88,840 75,776 62,130 47,877 32,990 34,525

Equity Capital contributions 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 Retained earnings 68,237 147,996 239,849 336,899 447,279 684,552 Total Equity 1,068,237 1,147,996 1,239,849 1,336,899 1,447,279 1,684,552

Total Liabilities and Equity $ 1,157,077 $ 1,223,771 $ 1,301,979 $ 1,384,777 $ 1,480,269 $ 1,719,077

 

 

Sample Construction – Cash Flow

Connect the parts from the Balance Sheet and Income Statement.

Consider a ‘T=0’ time period for initial investments (capital expenditure, debt financing, equity financing, etc).

Is there a minimum ‘days cash on hand’ to start with? This will influence financing requirements.

Cash balances are ‘iterative’ (turn on Excel feature).

 

 

Sample Construction – Cash Flow

Sample Company

Projected Cash Flows

T=0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Terminal

Cash Flows from Operating Activities Net Income $ – $ 68,237 $ 79,758 $ 91,853 $ 97,050 $ 110,380 $ 237,273

Adjust for non-cash items

Depreciation – 140,533 140,533 140,533 150,533 150,533 –

Adjust for changes in:

(Increase) decrease in accounts receivable (174,089) (8,704) (9,140) (9,597) (10,076) (10,580) (11,109)

Increase (decrease) in accounts payable 26,347 1,202 1,262 1,326 1,392 1,461 1,534

Net Cash Provided (Used) by Operations (147,742) 201,268 212,414 224,115 238,899 251,794 227,698

Cash Flows from Investing Activities

Capital expenditures (748,450) – – – (50,000) – –

Net Cash Used in Investing (748,450) – – – (50,000) – –

Cash Flows from Financing Activities

Loan proceeds 75,000 – – – – – –

Member contributions 1,000,000 – – – – – –

Principal payments – (13,709) (14,326) (14,971) (15,645) (16,349) –

Net Cash Provided (Used) by Financing 1,075,000 (13,709) (14,326) (14,971) (15,645) (16,349) –

Net Increase in Cash 178,808 187,559 198,088 209,144 173,254 235,445 227,698

Cash, Beginning of Year – 178,808 366,367 564,455 773,599 946,853 1,182,298

Cash, End of Year $ 178,808 $ 366,367 $ 564,455 $ 773,599 $ 946,853 $ 1,182,298 $ 1,409,996

 

 

Sample Construction – Iterative Calculations

 

 

Sample Construction – Cash Flows

Most overlooked in financial modeling, but most important.

Statement of Cash Flows shows: Timing of capital expenditures for growth Additional borrowing needs Ability to provide return on investment

Cash flows available to investors (free cash flows) is a core element in financial decision making, and is essential to a net present value analysis or an internal rate of return analysis.

 

 

Sample Construction – Decision Making

Sample Company

Decision Making

T=0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Terminal

EBIT

N/A

$ 94,358 $ 109,103 $ 124,584 $ 130,840 $ 147,909 $ 316,364

Less: tax on EBIT (23,590) (27,276) (31,146) (32,710) (36,977) (79,091)

After-tax EBIT 70,769 81,827 93,438 98,130 110,932 237,273

Add: depreciation 140,533 140,533 140,533 150,533 150,533 –

Less: capital expenditures – – – (50,000) – –

Less: working capital requirements (7,502) (7,877) (8,271) (8,685) (9,119) (9,575)

Free Cash Flows to Debt and Equity $ 203,799 $ 214,483 $ 225,700 $ 189,978 $ 252,346 $ 227,698

Free Cash Flows to Debt and Equity $ (1,075,000) $ 203,799 $ 214,483 $ 225,700 $ 189,978 $ 252,346 $ 1,138,490

Present Value (1,075,000) 186,042 163,162 143,080 100,362 111,091 501,203

Net Present Value $ 129,942

Required Rate of Return 20%

 

 

Other Layout Consideration

Have a summary tab that provides the ‘answer’ concisely.

Have designated ‘input only’ tabs and clearly delineate variables.

Link and cross-link worksheets

Use Excel formulas: If/then Average and median Lookup Forecast Trend

 

 

Basics of Financial Analysis

 

 

Why Perform Financial Analysis?

Projection assumptions can be supported by historical financial analysis.

Basic financial analysis tools include: Common size financial statements Ratio analysis Trend analysis Industry comparatives

Financial analysis tools and techniques can: Isolate trends (positive and negative). Help identify strengths and weaknesses.

 

 

Common Size Financial Statements

Income Statement line items as a percentage of revenues: Identify changes in cost of sales, gross profits, and operating expense margins over time.

Balance Sheet line items as a percentage of total assets: Identify changes in (and composition of) current assets and liabilities, fixed assets, debt, and other balances sheet items over time.

Are margins and compositions expected to stay the same in the future?

Why have margins changed? Were the changes expected?

 

 

Ratio Analysis

Ratio analysis can assist with understanding and projecting: Growth Cost control Asset turnover Profitability Risk How these ratios have changed (or not) over time.

How do ratios compare to benchmarks? Integra Information (www.integrainfo.com) RMA Statement Studies (www.statementstudies.org) Trade associations

 

 

Ratio Analysis

Growth Ratios Growth in revenues Growth in expenses Growth in earnings

Cost Control Ratios Often common size income statement / margins

Turnover Ratios Receivable turnover Inventory turnover Payable turnover Total asset turnover

 

 

Ratio Analysis – Example Sample Company Projection Assumptions

Growth Rates

Line Item Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Terminal

Revenues 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Salaries 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Benefits 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Supplies 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Licenses 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Utilities 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Repairs and maintenance 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Insurance 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Telephone 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Management fees 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Miscellaneous 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

Accounts Receivable

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Terminal Assumed days outstanding 70 70 70 70 70 70 Accounts receivable turnover 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21 5.21

Projected Net Sales $ 953,135 $ 1,000,792 $ 1,050,831 $ 1,103,373 $ 1,158,542 $ 1,216,469 Projected accounts receivable $ 182,793 $ 191,933 $ 201,529 $ 211,606 $ 222,186 $ 233,295

Accounts Payable

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Terminal Assumed days outstanding 14 14 14 14 14 14 Accounts payable turnover 26.07 26.07 26.07 26.07 26.07 26.07

Projected Operating Expenses, less Int & Depr $ 718,244 $ 751,156 $ 785,714 $ 822,000 $ 860,100 $ 900,105 Projected accounts payable $ 27,549 $ 28,811 $ 30,137 $ 31,529 $ 32,990 $ 34,525

 

 

Ratio Analysis

Profitability Ratios Return on Assets (ROA) Return on Equity (ROE) Return on Investment (ROI)

Risk Ratios Leverage Interest coverage Current ratio

 

 

Financial Analysis

Beware the pitfalls: Ratios can be complicated by accounting methods:

How do comparable companies report inventory, depreciation, etc. GAAP allows for different treatments, and different accounting treatments can skew ratio output.

Ratios are ‘industry dependent’: CPA firms use different ratios than manufacturing firms Be cautious of ‘rules of thumb’

Financial analysis tools are diagnostic; they do a better job of raising questions than providing answers!

 

 

Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis How does the projection respond to different ‘shocks’? Important to know which variables and assumptions are most influential in your model.

 

 

Scenario Analysis

Run multiple scenarios: Measure outcomes of events with different influences. Often used to see best case and worst case.

Used to establish a range of cash flows for the company, but does not necessarily increase confidence in ‘decision’.

 

 

Monte Carlo Analysis

Monte Carlo analysis: Measures outcomes of events with random influences and assigns probabilities based on frequency. Can run tens of thousands of potential scenarios in seconds.

Does not give you ‘THE’ answer, but gives confidence in the range of answers for a set of variables.

 

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